Let’s grab some plays on Judge, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a well-rested San Diego team while searching for a home run
Hello and good Friday to you. I love good news and Friday generally is good news in and of itself for many people. Here, under the Matt Snyder byline on CBS Sports, Friday means it’s time for another installment of picks, or, as I like to call this little exercise, Friday Night lines.
For the newbies, the general goal here is to find two or more plays for Friday, along with one home run play and a futures play. We were 1-1 on the bets each of the last two weeks and while that isn’t terrible, it isn’t the goal. We’re looking to go either 2-0 or hit the jackpot with a home run.
There’s a full slate of 15 games on Friday and 14 of them come at night, so we’ll focus on the night slate. All lines are from Draft Kings this week.
Aaron Judge over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (-110)
This prop is generally only 1.5, but Judge averages 3.52 hits plus runs plus RBI per game, so it’s fine to go up to 2.5 here. He’s Aaron Freaking Judge and he’s a monster, after all. He’s even better at home than on the road, too.
José Berríos gets the ball for the Blue Jays in Yankee Stadium for this one and Judge is 11 for 32 with two doubles, four homers and nine RBI in his career against Berríos, with all four homers having come in the last three seasons. Straight up: Judge is a menace against every pitcher, but he owns Berríos.
The Padres had Thursday off and get back in San Diego’s Petco Park on Friday. They are 12-1 with a +48 run differential at home this season. Basically, they are world-beaters at home.
Enter the Rays, who are 7-13 in their last 20 games and have lost six of their last nine. They don’t get a day off. In fact, they had to play the Diamondbacks in a night game Thursday before the travel. I kind of like that they stormed back late to win that one, because that makes them feel less in desperation mode to get a win here, mentally.
The pitching matchup favors the Padres as well, with Michael King — now a fully-formed ace at this point — in front of a rested and exceptional bullpen while the Rays send Shane Baz to the mound. He was battered last time out by the Yankees.
The most likely outcome here is a Padres win by multiple runs and we get a big plus on this one.
The Pirates are one of the worst and most strikeout-heavy offenses in baseball. Not only have they never faced Yamamoto, but they don’t have a single player who has seen Yamamoto in regular-season or playoff action. Ever. If you’ve been watching Yamamoto’s stuff recently, it’s been pure and unadulterated filth. The Cubs have had the best offense in baseball to this point, but Yamamoto struck them out nine times in six scoreless innings. The Rangers have a lineup full of capable sluggers and Yamamoto struck them out 10 times in seven scoreless innings last Friday.
Again, the Pirates’ offense is terrible. Add everything together with Yamamoto’s splitter and we’re going to see a bunch of Pirates’ strikeouts.
Home run play: Pick an Athletics hitter
Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park has been one of the best environments for home runs so far this season. A decent amount of that damage has come against the “home” A’s, but they’ve also hit their fair share of home runs and have some serious power threats up and down that batting order.
White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke has given up six home runs in 21⅔ this season while the White Sox bullpen isn’t very good. The A’s hit two homers off Burke on April 15, when he gave up five runs on six hits in less than four innings. That was in Chicago, too. Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom and Shea Langeliers have hit homers off him before. Rookie Nick Kurtz hit seven home runs in 20 Triple-A games before his call to the majors and has major power.
I like Soderstrom (+370), Rooker (+295) and Kurtz (+550) the most here.
Futures play: Zack Wheeler to win Cy Young, +1200
My preseason Cy Young picks were Royals lefty Cole Ragans in the AL in and Phillies stalwart Zack Wheeler on the NL side. I did a full breakdown of the Cy Young odds on Thursday and I’m sticking with my preseason selections. Ragans was bad on Thursday after the article was published, but I’ll stick with him. Wheeler is a great play, though. He’s been good enough to keep me confident while starting just slow enough to give us some juicy odds. It’s a sweet spot, so I’m taking a big bite.
