SportsLine’s computer model revealed its best NBA points props for Friday’s NBA schedule, which would return nearly +800 for NBA parlay picks
The 2025 NBA Playoffs have no shortage of star power, and that’s certainly the case with Friday’s three-game slate. Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton are some of the many All-Stars in action during the trio of Game 3s. Antetokounmpo is leading the 2025 NBA Playoffs with 35 points per game, with Luka Doncic and Paolo Banchero just behind him at 34. Consequently, NBA player props centered on scoring will be popular among bettors. Antetokounmpo’s over-under is 32.5 points in the latest NBA props at Bet365, and he’s eclipsed that number in three straight versus Indiana. Which other NBA betting trends should you be aware of before making any NBA picks for scoring props on Friday?
SportsLine’s proven model has simulated every Friday NBA game and revealed its best NBA picks. The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season. Now, here are the best bets for NBA props on Friday, according to the model. You can see all of the model’s NBA parlay picks here.
Optimal NBA points props for Friday, April 25
Franz Wagner Under 24.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)
This is a hefty bar for Wagner considering he’s never averaged 24.5 points per game any season in his career, and players’ numbers traditionally decrease during the playoffs. The German forward has averaged 20 ppg across his postseason career, but he’s struggled to even reach that threshold versus the Celtics. Over his last 10 against Boston, Wagner has gone Under 24.5 points nine times, and he’s actually failed to even reach 20 points in seven of those games. While it’s Orlando which has the NBA’s top scoring defense, the Celtics aren’t far behind, ranking second, as the model projects 21.0 points for Wagner in Game 3.
Wendell Carter Jr. Over 9.5 points (+100 at Bet365)
The Magic may have found something in Game 2 as Carter had 16 points on 6 of 8 shooting, including knocking down all three of his 3-point attempts. His ability to stretch the floor as a big pulled Kristaps Porzingis away from the lane and opened up driving lanes for Banchero and Wagner, who combined for 15 free throws. Thus, Carter continuing to look for his shot helps Orlando in multiple ways, and outside of the two Orlando stars, he’s been the only reliable option for Orlando. Carter is averaging a double-double in this series and has gone Over 9.5 points in four of his last six playoff games. He’s also reached double-figures in nine of his last 10 versus Boston as the former Duke star is projected to finish just under that with 9.9 points on Friday.
Damian Lillard Over 21.5 points (-130 at Bet365)
Playing in his first game in a month after a scary bout with DVT, Lillard went 4 of 13 en route to 14 points in Milwaukee’s Game 2 loss to the Pacers. The fatigue from the time off was evident as he shot 50% in the first half but just 14.2% in the second half, however, this series having two days in between Games 2 and 3 should help Lillard recover for tonight. Even with his struggles on Tuesday, Lillard is averaging 23.5 points over his last 10 games versus Indiana, and he’s gone Over 21.5 in seven of those 10.
A return to Fiserv Forum should certainly help Lillard with his shot, and thus hitting the Over, as he’s knocking down 40.1% of 3-point attempts at home this season, compared to 34.5% on the road. SportsLine’s advanced model has Lillard hitting the Over with points to spare, as it forecasts him to finish with 25.9 points.
LeBron James Over 22.5 points (-120 at Bet365)
The NBA’s all-time leading scorer has games of 19 points and 21 points thus far in this series, but he was clearly more assertive in Game 2, which resulted in a victory, and that indicates he’ll maintain that assertiveness in Game 3. The Lakers had their backs against the wall in Game 2, and they should have a similar mindset tonight as they don’t want to be in another hole, with the Timberwolves now having home court-advantage. James has a lengthy resume of excelling in these types of situations, and recent history is also on his side with this prop line.
James has gone Over 22.5 points in seven of his last nine playoff games, as well as six of his last seven road playoff games, as this series shifts to Minneapolis. Additionally, thus far, Doncic has been the No. 1 option for L.A. in this series, so Minnesota may counter by devoting more attention to him, which should open up opportunities for James, who is projected to score 24.1 points.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s NBA best bets for Friday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
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You can also see today’s best NBA player prop picks from expert Mike Barner, who’s on a sizzling 144-97 roll on NBA player prop picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up almost 30 units.
