Manager Rob Thomson said before the game Sunday that he trusted his pitchers to ‘keep grinding through it’
The Philadelphia Phillies recorded their majors-leading sixth blown save on Sunday, wasting a quality start from Jesús Luzardo against his former team the Miami Marlins. The Phillies carried a 4-1 edge into the seventh, and a 4-2 advantage into the eighth. Alas, Philadelphia’s relievers couldn’t close the door. Instead, the Phillies would go on to fall 7-5 in extras (box score).
Now, nearly a month into the season, it’s fair to write that the Phillies have experienced their share of bullpen problems. They’ll enter the new week ranked 29th in unit earned run average, ahead of only the leaky Washington Nationals. To put that statistic into context, the Phillies have deployed eight relievers so far this season (all having completed at least seven innings of work). Just three have an ERA+ above 100: closer José Alvarado and fellow lefties Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks. Conversely, four Phillies relievers find themselves sporting an ERA at least 30% below average.
So much of a reliever’s value is situational. Giving up a run hurts a pitcher’s statline no matter the score, but the pain amplifies when those runs score in late and close situations. Philadelphia’s relief corps has compiled the 10th most meltdowns, a FanGraphs-created statistic that uses Win Probability Added to gauge a reliever’s effectiveness on a game-by-game level. The foursome of Orion Kerkering, Jordan Romano, Joe Ross, and José Ruiz have combined for 10 themselves. (As opposed to just eight “shutdowns,” or the positive inverse of a meltdown.) That’s not a particularly good development considering that Kerkering (second), Ross (fourth), and Romano (fifth) are three of the five Phillies relievers with the highest leverage index, a metric that gauges the “pressure” of the situation based on the game’s score, base-out, and inning states.
“I don’t,” manager Rob Thomson told reporters pregame Sunday when asked if he felt the bullpen was a problem. “Because it’s still a small sample size. I know we have really good arms. Really good stuff out there. We just have to keep working at it and keep grinding through it.”
Thomson certainly has a point. Bullpens go through peaks and valleys like any other unit on a roster. The difference is their samples tend to be smaller, making both the highs and the lows more extreme. Finding the signal through all the noise can be a challenge. At the same time, there are some worrisome aspects worth highlighting about three Phillies relievers in particular:
- It was Kerkering, a 24-year-old with a career 163 ERA+, who committed the arson on Sunday. He surrendered three runs on three hits (including a home run) and a walk. It’s perhaps notable that Kerkering’s signature sweeper, his primary offering, has so far featured less depth compared to last season. Batters are making contact at a higher rate, and have gained 165 points of OPS.
- Romano was signed to a one-year pact over the offseason with the hopes that he could rediscover the talent that enabled him to make a pair of All-Star Games as the closer of the Toronto Blue Jays. So far, not so good on that possibility. Romano’s velocity is down, and his slider too has been less effective.
- Then there’s Ross, in his first full season as a reliever. Usually, a move to the bullpen brings higher velocity and more emphasis on generating swings and misses. Not here. Ross’ velocity is down year-to-year (by less than half an mph), and he’s prioritized a sinker that has to date coerced one whiff on 26 swings. That’s not what you want.
As noted above, the beauty and agony of bullpens is that they’re fickle. The pitchers above could sort through their issues any day and go on a tear, turning Philadelphia’s bullpen from a weakness to a strength. Alternatively, the Phillies could swap out some parts, be it through trades, waiver claims, or promotions. (That last part will be tricky, however, since only Banks and Kerkering have minor-league options remaining.) There’s enough time between now and October to get things right.
For now, though, a messy bullpen is what separates the Phillies from first place in the National League East.
