After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Friday’s 15-game schedule
Two staff aces will square off on Friday when Sandy Alcantara and the Florida Marlins meet Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Marlins have won all three games this season started by Alcantara (2-0, 4.70 ERA), the 2022 Cy Young Award winner. That includes a 7-6 win over the Nationals on Saturday. Meanwhile the Phillies are 2-2 in Wheeler’s four games. Wheeler (1-1, 4.07) has struggled over his last two outings, giving up nine earned runs in 11.1 innings across two losses against the Braves and Cardinals.
For the Miami-Philadelphia matchup, sportsbooks have set Alcantara’s total strikeout player prop at 4.5 and Wheeler’s at 7.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Alcantara Over 4.5 and Wheeler Under 7.5 as both 4-star plays on the model’s five-star scale.
However, the model has found even better value on Friday’s 15-game MLB schedule. The model has two pitcher strikeout player props rated at 5 stars and another rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Carmen Mlodzinski Under 3.5 strikeouts (+104) vs. Guardians (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.3 strikeouts
Cleveland batters have struck out 145 times this season; just six teams have fewer strikeouts. More importantly, the Guardians have fanned just 96 times against righthanded pitchers; only five teams have fewer strikeouts against righties. Meanwhile the Pirates‘ Mlodzinski (1-2, 6.23 ERA) has pitched 4.1 innings or fewer in two of his three starts so far this season.
Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 strikeouts (-122) vs. Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
The 29-year-old Rasmussen has hit the Over on 5.5 strikeouts only once this season, and that came against the struggling Braves, who have struck out 178 times this season, the sixth-highest total in the majors. Meanwhile the Bombers are on a roll, having won four straight and only striking out five times in Thursday’s 6-3 win over the Rays.
Kyle Hart Under 3.5 strikeouts (-110) vs. Astros (8:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.4 strikeouts
Houston should love seeing a lefty starter. Because of the Astros’ rightie-heavy lineup, they have just 62 at-bats against southpaws this season, by far the fewest in the majors. Also, in his lone road start this season, Hart (2-0, 5.40) gave up two hits, four walks and five earned runs and did not get out of the first inning against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
