Another year, another compelling finish in the race for the Premiership play-offs. Heading into the last five rounds of the regular season, eight of the 10 sides can mathematically qualify for the four semi-final spots. Bath are comfortable front-runners and Bristol Bears have a shallow cushion in second, yet third and seventh are separated by a measly four points.
Here is a rundown of the run-in.
8. Northampton Saints, 28 points
Remaining fixtures: Newcastle Falcons (A), Bristol Bears (H), Exeter Chiefs (A), Saracens (H), Gloucester (A)
Injuries to key players, international commitments and poor passages within games have derailed Saints’ title defence quite drastically. It will still be intriguing to monitor them over the run-in, chiefly to see how they manage their resources with the Champions Cup semi-final in mind.
One would expect Phil Dowson to field Juarno Augustus, Alex Mitchell, Fin Smith, Tommy Freeman and other senior players against Bristol to tune up those front-liners, and Northampton should be as close as possible to full strength when hosting Saracens as well. Wins in those matches would cause significant ripple effects.
Predicted league position: 8th
7. Harlequins, 37 points
Remaining fixtures: Sale Sharks (H), Leicester Tigers (A), Gloucester (H), Exeter Chiefs (H), Bristol Bears (A)
The next fortnight feels critical for Harlequins, because an inconsistent campaign is teetering on the back of a Dublin debacle. They will not face a side as good as Leinster for some time, but will need to deliver their best against Sale and Leicester to stay in the hunt. Landing two victories, which they probably need, seems unlikely. Though Harlequins have some happy memories of Ashton Gate, they have shipped 101 points in their past two meetings with Bristol.
Predicted league position: 7th
6. Saracens, 39 points
Remaining fixtures: Gloucester (H), Sale Sharks (A), Newcastle Falcons (H), Northampton Saints (A), Bath (H)
Mark McCall knows how to navigate his way to the play-offs and, after rescuing themselves in Leicester last month, the formula should be reasonably straightforward for Saracens: win all three at StoneX Stadium and nick one on the road against either Sale or Saints.
This is a season of transition, with fly-half Fergus Burke adapting to the northern hemisphere, but England regulars will be rested and ready. Scrummaging solidity perhaps remains a question mark against the best set-piece operators and there have been wobbles up in Newcastle and against Harlequins in Tottenham. Channel the spirit of a breathtaking first half in Toulon and Saracens can sneak into the top four.
Predicted league position: 4th
5. Sale Sharks, 39 points
Remaining fixtures: Harlequins (A), Saracens (H), Leicester Tigers (A), Bristol Bears (H), Exeter Chiefs (A)
Should they stumble short of the play-offs, Sale will rue a lack of bonus points. In a campaign of dizzying scorelines around the Premiership, they have accumulated just seven – all of them for registering four tries – across the first 13 rounds. Only Newcastle have fewer.
In brighter news, their defiant defeat in Toulouse represented a template to take forward. Sale possess a robust scrum and a bristling defence. If George Ford gets into a rhythm, with Tom Roebuck now a deadly weapon out wide, their attack will fire. Having snuck into the top four last term, they can do so again. It is worth noting that total matches won is the first tie-breaker between sides level on points, which bodes well for Alex Sanderson’s charges because they already have eight.
Predicted league position: 3rd
4. Gloucester, 41 points
Remaining fixtures: Saracens (A), Exeter Chiefs (H), Harlequins (Twickenham), Newcastle Falcons (A), Northampton (H)
Three years ago, Gloucester’s play-off attempt effectively boiled down to a breezy contest against Harlequins at the Allianz Stadium. They should have prevailed, yet lapsed in the final quarter to lose 28-24. George Skivington’s men ultimately finished two points beneath the top four.
Two trips to London, to face Saracens on Saturday evening and then to take on Harlequins at Twickenham once more on May 10, will go a long way to deciding whether Gloucester stay in contention. Expect them to keep plundering bonus points, because their attacking synergy is impressive and Santiago Carreras is on fire. A raucous Kingsholm could carry them through on May 31. After a season of significant improvement, with the promise of even better days to come, being edged out would be no disgrace.
Predicted league position: 5th
3. Leicester Tigers, 41 points
Remaining fixtures: Bristol Bears (A), Harlequins (H), Sale Sharks (H), Bath (A), Newcastle Falcons (H)
There have been big positives to this season for Tigers, who enter the home straight in third. Their attack has looked more fluent, while a pair of talented prospects in Joe Woodward and Emeka Ilione have thrived with greater responsibility. But the loss to Saracens on March 30 at Welford Road had the feel of a costly slip-up.
Then their display in Glasgow was horribly flat. They will back themselves to take maximum points against Newcastle in round 18 and should dismiss Harlequins at home. However, you need to go back to October 2021 for their last Premiership victory over Sale and trips to Bristol and Bath look ominous.
Predicted league position: 6th
2. Bristol Bears, 46 points
Remaining fixtures: Leicester Tigers (H), Northampton Saints (A), Bath (Cardiff), Sale Sharks (A), Harlequins (H)
Pat Lam will be grateful for his five-point buffer ahead of third, because Bristol have a tricky finish bookended by two Ashton Gate games that they really need to win. Failure to secure a semi-final, given a barnstorming start to the campaign, would be devastating.
Despite fantastic results on the road in 2024, trips to Northampton and Sale will not be easy and there is the nagging concern that they have conceded 35 or more in each of their past five Premiership matches. AJ MacGinty is back, though, and Joe Batley is not far away either.
Predicted league position: 2nd
1. Bath, 56 points
Remaining fixtures: Exeter (A), Newcastle (H), Bristol Bears (Cardiff), Leicester Tigers (H), Saracens (A)
Watching their Challenge Cup thrashing of Gloucester on Sunday, one could not help but feel slightly disappointed that Bath did not reach the Champions Cup knockout rounds. But they have prioritised the Premiership this season, so now is their time to shine.
Johann van Graan is rotating a vast squad shrewdly while bringing through youngsters. Jaco Coetzee’s injury is a setback (more time at No 8 for Miles Reid) but Bath’s lead means they can pick their battles in the regular season. In truth, they will have a strong blend of youth and experience in each game. Ousting Bristol, who beat them handily at home, or Leicester would maintain impetus and allow Bath to influence the play-off line-up.
Predicted league position: 1st
Another year, another compelling finish in the race for the Premiership play-offs. Heading into the last five rounds of the regular season, eight of the 10 sides can mathematically qualify for the four semi-final spots. Bath are comfortable front-runners and Bristol Bears have a shallow cushion in second, yet third and seventh are separated by a measly four points.
Here is a rundown of the run-in.
8. Northampton Saints, 28 points
Remaining fixtures: Newcastle Falcons (A), Bristol Bears (H), Exeter Chiefs (A), Saracens (H), Gloucester (A)
Injuries to key players, international commitments and poor passages within games have derailed Saints’ title defence quite drastically. It will still be intriguing to monitor them over the run-in, chiefly to see how they manage their resources with the Champions Cup semi-final in mind.
One would expect Phil Dowson to field Juarno Augustus, Alex Mitchell, Fin Smith, Tommy Freeman and other senior players against Bristol to tune up those front-liners, and Northampton should be as close as possible to full strength when hosting Saracens as well. Wins in those matches would cause significant ripple effects.
Predicted league position: 8th
7. Harlequins, 37 points
Remaining fixtures: Sale Sharks (H), Leicester Tigers (A), Gloucester (H), Exeter Chiefs (H), Bristol Bears (A)
The next fortnight feels critical for Harlequins, because an inconsistent campaign is teetering on the back of a Dublin debacle. They will not face a side as good as Leinster for some time, but will need to deliver their best against Sale and Leicester to stay in the hunt. Landing two victories, which they probably need, seems unlikely. Though Harlequins have some happy memories of Ashton Gate, they have shipped 101 points in their past two meetings with Bristol.
Predicted league position: 7th
6. Saracens, 39 points
Remaining fixtures: Gloucester (H), Sale Sharks (A), Newcastle Falcons (H), Northampton Saints (A), Bath (H)
Mark McCall knows how to navigate his way to the play-offs and, after rescuing themselves in Leicester last month, the formula should be reasonably straightforward for Saracens: win all three at StoneX Stadium and nick one on the road against either Sale or Saints.
This is a season of transition, with fly-half Fergus Burke adapting to the northern hemisphere, but England regulars will be rested and ready. Scrummaging solidity perhaps remains a question mark against the best set-piece operators and there have been wobbles up in Newcastle and against Harlequins in Tottenham. Channel the spirit of a breathtaking first half in Toulon and Saracens can sneak into the top four.
Predicted league position: 4th
5. Sale Sharks, 39 points
Remaining fixtures: Harlequins (A), Saracens (H), Leicester Tigers (A), Bristol Bears (H), Exeter Chiefs (A)
Should they stumble short of the play-offs, Sale will rue a lack of bonus points. In a campaign of dizzying scorelines around the Premiership, they have accumulated just seven – all of them for registering four tries – across the first 13 rounds. Only Newcastle have fewer.
In brighter news, their defiant defeat in Toulouse represented a template to take forward. Sale possess a robust scrum and a bristling defence. If George Ford gets into a rhythm, with Tom Roebuck now a deadly weapon out wide, their attack will fire. Having snuck into the top four last term, they can do so again. It is worth noting that total matches won is the first tie-breaker between sides level on points, which bodes well for Alex Sanderson’s charges because they already have eight.
Predicted league position: 3rd
4. Gloucester, 41 points
Remaining fixtures: Saracens (A), Exeter Chiefs (H), Harlequins (Twickenham), Newcastle Falcons (A), Northampton (H)
Three years ago, Gloucester’s play-off attempt effectively boiled down to a breezy contest against Harlequins at the Allianz Stadium. They should have prevailed, yet lapsed in the final quarter to lose 28-24. George Skivington’s men ultimately finished two points beneath the top four.
Two trips to London, to face Saracens on Saturday evening and then to take on Harlequins at Twickenham once more on May 10, will go a long way to deciding whether Gloucester stay in contention. Expect them to keep plundering bonus points, because their attacking synergy is impressive and Santiago Carreras is on fire. A raucous Kingsholm could carry them through on May 31. After a season of significant improvement, with the promise of even better days to come, being edged out would be no disgrace.
Predicted league position: 5th
3. Leicester Tigers, 41 points
Remaining fixtures: Bristol Bears (A), Harlequins (H), Sale Sharks (H), Bath (A), Newcastle Falcons (H)
There have been big positives to this season for Tigers, who enter the home straight in third. Their attack has looked more fluent, while a pair of talented prospects in Joe Woodward and Emeka Ilione have thrived with greater responsibility. But the loss to Saracens on March 30 at Welford Road had the feel of a costly slip-up.
Then their display in Glasgow was horribly flat. They will back themselves to take maximum points against Newcastle in round 18 and should dismiss Harlequins at home. However, you need to go back to October 2021 for their last Premiership victory over Sale and trips to Bristol and Bath look ominous.
Predicted league position: 6th
2. Bristol Bears, 46 points
Remaining fixtures: Leicester Tigers (H), Northampton Saints (A), Bath (Cardiff), Sale Sharks (A), Harlequins (H)
Pat Lam will be grateful for his five-point buffer ahead of third, because Bristol have a tricky finish bookended by two Ashton Gate games that they really need to win. Failure to secure a semi-final, given a barnstorming start to the campaign, would be devastating.
Despite fantastic results on the road in 2024, trips to Northampton and Sale will not be easy and there is the nagging concern that they have conceded 35 or more in each of their past five Premiership matches. AJ MacGinty is back, though, and Joe Batley is not far away either.
Predicted league position: 2nd
1. Bath, 56 points
Remaining fixtures: Exeter (A), Newcastle (H), Bristol Bears (Cardiff), Leicester Tigers (H), Saracens (A)
Watching their Challenge Cup thrashing of Gloucester on Sunday, one could not help but feel slightly disappointed that Bath did not reach the Champions Cup knockout rounds. But they have prioritised the Premiership this season, so now is their time to shine.
Johann van Graan is rotating a vast squad shrewdly while bringing through youngsters. Jaco Coetzee’s injury is a setback (more time at No 8 for Miles Reid) but Bath’s lead means they can pick their battles in the regular season. In truth, they will have a strong blend of youth and experience in each game. Ousting Bristol, who beat them handily at home, or Leicester would maintain impetus and allow Bath to influence the play-off line-up.
Predicted league position: 1st
