Toronto has become known more for whiffing than landing its targets, but the winter isn’t over yet
It happened again. The Toronto Blue Jays pursued a marquee free agent, were among the finalists, then didn’t get him. This time it was Japanese righty Roki Sasaki, who went to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Something similar happened with Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Clay Holmes, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres earlier this offseason. Last offseason it was Shohei Ohtani, the most absurd miss of all given the misguided tracking of a private jet from Southern California to Toronto.
“We’re really fortunate to have the support that we have (from ownership),” GM Ross Atkins said after missing out on Soto last month. “To be in the biggest market — the market of players, I’m speaking to — and have this fantastic city and country and team that players are attracted to. The interest has been authentic. It’s been genuine. We feel fortunate that that’s the case. We’ll continue to think about ways to make our team better.”
The Sasaki miss comes with a real cost. The Blue Jays absorbed $11 million owed to Myles Straw to get an additional $2 million in international bonus pool money from from the Cleveland Guardians, which they then offered to Sasaki. He still said no. It was a desperation move — the Dodgers made their bonus pool trades after Sasaki said yes — by a desperate team. In the grand scheme of things, spending $11 million over two years on a fifth outfielder won’t be prohibitive, but it was a bad misfire by Atkins & Co.
Despite all their “we trieds,” the Blue Jays have actually gotten a few players this offseason. Most notably, they traded for Gold Glove second baseman Andrés Giménez and signed late-inning relievers Yimi García and Jeff Hoffman to reinforce a bullpen that was among MLB‘s worst in 2024. Those are solid enough moves that will make the Blue Jays better. Better enough to go from 74 wins in 2024 to the postseason in 2025? I’m skeptical, though it’s not impossible in the watered down American League.
The fan base is disappointed at best and enraged at worst. The Blue Jays had a disappointing 2024, they haven’t won a postseason game since 2016 despite several recent trips, and their two homegrown stars (Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) are both a year away from free agency. You needn’t try hard to see how the Blue Jays could be forced to enter a rebuild in a few months, perhaps with a new GM. The Blue Jays need a hot stove win. Atkins needs a hot stove win.
It will take more than a few free agent signings and shrewd trades to win back the fan base, but it would be a good start. Bring in a few new players, win some games early in the season, and the vibes will shift. Here are four things the Blue Jays can do to salvage their offseason and put themselves in better position to contend for a postseason berth in 2025.
1. Extend Vlad Jr.
It will almost certainly cost more than the Blue Jays are comfortable with. Last month, Guerrero said on the Spanish-language Abriendo El Podcastthat the Blue Jays offered him a $340 million extension that was “not even close to what we are looking for.” That was before Soto’s $765 million contract moved the salary bar up for star players too. Guerrero is not Soto, but he is a soon-to-be 26-year-old coming off a tremendous season, and he has a lot of leverage. Vlad Jr. knows the Blue Jays have been unable to land top free agents, and as the homegrown franchise player, he carries extra appeal. Guerrero is young enough that, even if the Blue Jays have to rebuild after 2025, he’ll still be in his prime when they’re ready to contend again. The number, whatever it ends up being ($500 million?), will make the Blue Jays uncomfortable. At this point though, what choice do they have?
2. Sign Alonso or Santander
You could put Alex Bregman in this group too, though agent Scott Boras recently indicated Bregman is still seeking a long-term contract, according to The Athletic. Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander have both expressed a willingness to take a shorter term deal recently. If you can keep things short-term for a free agent in his 30s, do that. The Blue Jays have an opening at DH — Will Wagner’s a nice player, but come on — plus Alonso could share first base time with Vlad Jr., and Santander could always give them innings in the outfield. Both would upgrade the lineup considerably and give the Blue Jays a much-needed power bat. Did you know Toronto ranked 26th in homers in 2024? Giménez and a full season of Joey Loperfido ain’t fixing that.
3. Sign Flaherty too
Toronto’s rotation includes aging Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt, innings-eater José Berríos, the intriguing Bowden Francis, then a question mark. It could be Yariel Rodríguez or Jake Bloss. It won’t be Alek Manoah or erstwhile top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, both of whom are on the mend from Tommy John surgery. Similar to Alonso and Santander, Jack Flaherty is said to be open to a short-term contract. He’s also arguably the best free-agent starter available. It’s either Flaherty or native Canadian Nick Pivetta, who rejected the qualifying offer. Flaherty is not tied to draft-pick compensation. Pivetta is. A short-term deal to add Flaherty to the rotation feels like a no-brainer for the Blue Jays, assuming they can convince him to take their money.
4. Call the Padres about Arraez and Cease
Like the Blue Jays, the Padres also lost out on Sasaki after being a finalist. Unlike the Blue Jays, the Padres have mostly sat out the offseason. The only player they’ve added to the 40-man roster from outside the organization is Rule 5 Draft pick Juan Nuñez, who has yet to pitch above Single-A. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates San Diego’s 2025 competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll at $247 million, above the $241 million CBT threshold and well above last year $228 million payroll. There were rumblings the Padres would have to cut payroll even before the ownership infighting began. First baseman/DH Luis Arraez and righty Dylan Cease are a year away from free agency and owed $14 million and $13.75 million in 2025, respectively. How desperate are the Padres to unload that money? Desperate enough to trade one or both players for 75 cents on the dollar? Might as well call and ask. Arraez isn’t a great roster fit, at least not if the Blue Jays sign Alonso or Santander, but there’s always a price where it makes sense.
Spring training is a month away and just about every top unsigned free agent is said to be open to a short-term contract except Bregman. The Blue Jays should be all over the short-term market. Alonso or Santander and Flaherty would meaningfully improve Toronto’s 2025 outlook, and, if things go poorly, short-term commitments would make them tradeable at the deadline. The same goes for Arraez and Cease, who are rentals. It might only take 83 wins to get a wild-card spot in the AL this coming season. It won’t take too much for Toronto to put themselves in that mix.
Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates the club’s 2025 CBT payroll at $241 million, right at the first penalty threshold. Adding Alonso or Santander plus Flaherty would add what, another $50 million to payroll? That would be tough for the Blue Jays to swallow, but they did offer Soto a boatload of money, and that was in conjunction with taking on Giménez’s pricey contract. The Blue Jays were willing to raise payroll. We know that. They might have to go a little higher than they would like to improve the team, but that’s life. It’s that or fielding an undermanned roster and risk further aggravating an already disillusioned fan base.
Extending Guerrero is the big one. I get it might make the Blue Jays uneasy — righty-hitting and righty-throwing first basemen tend to age poorly (hence Alonso’s slow market) — but he is your beloved homegrown star, and he will turn only 26 in March. Guerrero still has many peak years ahead of him and the talent to be the centerpiece of a World Series contender. Lock that guy up long-term, then get to work improving the roster around him. They’ll probably have to resort to Plan D or E at this point, though there is still time for the Blue Jays to salvage this disappointing offseason.
