Sizing up these playoff teams ahead of the divisional round
The NFL playoffs roll on as we turn the page to the divisional round. What makes this particular round even more exciting is that the No. 1 seeds emerge from their first-round bye and officially enter the race for a Super Bowl title. This year, that includes the Kansas City Chiefs, who’ll be hosting the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday with a trip to the AFC Championship on the line.
These clubs are quite familiar with one another as you only have to go back to Week 16 when they last squared off. There, Kansas City pulled out the 27-19 victory, but a lot can change under the playoff lights.
As we gear up for this playoff matchup, we’re going to dive into the depths of these teams and see which of them has the edge at every position.
Quarterback
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
Texans: C.J. Stroud
This is sort of an unfair fight as Patrick Mahomes will get the edge over any quarterback in the league, particularly if we look at this in a playoff setting. Yes, the Chiefs star hasn’t put together the most prolific season of his career on a statistical basis, but it’d be silly to doubt him in this spot. The three-time Super Bowl champion absolutely owns the divisional round. In his career, he’s 6-0 in this spot and has 16 total touchdowns to go with zero turnovers in this round. After an extended break, he should come into this game with his hair on fire, which is a scary thought for Houston.
Just because we’re giving the edge here to the Chiefs doesn’t mean C.J. Stroud is a slouch. The Texans signal-caller has enjoyed great success since coming into the league in 2023, logging playoff wins in back-to-back seasons. That makes him just the sixth quarterback in NFL history to record a playoff win in each of his first two seasons, and the first top-three pick to do so.
Advantage: Chiefs
Running back
Chiefs: Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt
Texans: Joe Mixon
If we knew that Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco was firing on all cylinders, then this might be a touch closer. However, Kansas City has eased Pacheco back into the fold over the last few weeks of the regular season after missing a bulk of the year due to a fractured fibula he suffered in Week 2. When healthy, Pacheco has proven to be a physical back who can wear down opposing fronts. Kareem Hunt has filled in admirably in the Chiefs backfield, but neither currently possesses the ceiling Joe Mixon has for Houston.
Mixon is playing in his first season with the Texans and is coming off a regular season where he piled up 1,325 yards and 12 total touchdowns from scrimmage. His 4.1 yards per carry average is his best since 2021, and his 4.7 yards per touch is the best since 2018.
Advantage: Texans
Wide receiver
Chiefs: DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy
Texans: Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie III
If we were looking at these rosters at the beginning of the season, the Texans would’ve run away with a win. However, injuries have plagued Houston throughout the year, losing both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to knee injuries. Nico Collins — who also missed time this year — will be the best receiver on the field on Saturday after registering his second-straight 1,000-yard season, but the depth behind him holds the Texans back from getting the edge over Kansas City here.
DeAndre Hopkins — a familiar face to the Texans — hasn’t lit the world on fire since being acquired by the Chiefs but has shown glimpses that suggest he could flip a switch now that K.C. has entered the postseason. Hollywood Brown is one potential X-factor as well for the Chiefs. After suffering a shoulder injury, Brown played two games in the regular season before resting in Week 18. In that brief showing, he did catch nine of his 15 targets with a 10.1 yards per catch average. He and rookie Xavier Worthy are speedy options who have the ability to break off chunk plays at any given moment.
Advantage: Chiefs
Tight end
Chiefs: Travis Kelce, Noah Gray
Texans: Dalton Schultz
This one is pretty straightforward. Travis Kelce is one of the greatest tight ends of all time and has typically picked his spots over the last few years before turning it on in the playoffs. We saw a glimpse of that in Week 17 against Pittsburgh when he caught eight of his 11 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. While Kelce garners all of the attention, Noah Gray is a strong contributor in the passing game in his own right, coming into these playoffs after setting new career highs in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
For Houston, Dalton Schultz has been solid, catching 53 balls for 532 yards and two touchdowns, but doesn’t have the game-wrecking ability that Kelce does.
Advantage: Chiefs
Offensive line
Chiefs: D.J. Humphries, Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Jawaan Taylor
Texans: Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard, Jarrett Patterson, Shaq Mason, Blake Fisher
Kansas City has some questions as to who’ll play left tackle in this game, possibly kicking Joe Thuney out there from his natural left guard position. That said, the Chiefs still have the edge here after going through a season where they allowed a 6.4% sack rate, which ranked in the middle of the league. The club’s 33.3% pressure rate allowed was also just outside the top-10 fewest in the league. Meanwhile, Houston’s offensive line has been outright awful in pass protection. They finished the year tied for the third-most sacks allowed and ninth-highest pressure rate.
Advantage: Chiefs
Defensive line
Chiefs: George Karlaftis, Tershawn Wharton, Chris Jones, Mike Danna, Charles Omenihu, Felix Anudike-Uzomah
Texans: Will Anderson Jr, Tim Settle Jr., Folorunso Fatukasi, Danielle Hunter, Derek Barnett, Denico Autry
There are stars along both defensive lines, making this one of the tighter positional matchups we have on this list. The Chiefs have the 10th-highest pressure rate (35.9%) in the NFL this season and are tied for the seventh-most pressures. However, the Texans get home in a hurry and are one of the best teams at sacking the quarterback in the NFL. Houston’s 8.1% sack rate ranked fourth highest in the league and finished the year with 49 total sacks. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. both ended the year with double-digit sacks, making them one of the more feared duos in the league. Houston is also one of the fastest teams getting to the quarter, only allowing 2.75 seconds to throw, ranking top 10 in the NFL.
Advantage: Texans
Linebacker
Chiefs: Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, Leo Chenal
Texans: Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris, Henry To’oTo’o
The Texans linebacker unit might not be playing at 100% with Azeez Al-Shaair currently nursing a knee injury that has him limited at practice. Even with that noted, however, the Chiefs get the edge here. Nick Bolton is coming off a 106-tackle season where he also tallied a career-high three sacks. What makes him one of the best linebackers in the league is his prowess in coverage, breaking up six passes this season to go along with an interception. Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal also give Kansas City strong depth.
Advantage: Chiefs
Cornerback
Chiefs: Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams
Texans: Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter
Houston gets the edge at this position as the Texans’ secondary has been one of their strengths this season, allowing the lowest completion percentage (58%) and recording the second most interceptions (23) this season, including playoffs. The combination of Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are top-two in the NFL in completion percentage allowed. Stingley also leads the NFL with six interceptions this season (including playoffs).
Advantage: Texans
Safety
Chiefs: Justin Reid, Bryan Cook
Texans: Eric Murray, Calen Bullock
Justin Reid will square off against his former club this postseason, playing four seasons with the Texans before signing with Kansas City. The safety is coming off one of his stronger seasons in the league, posting 87 tackles, nine pass breakups and two interceptions this season. Fellow safety Bryan Cook has also been solid in the secondary, allowing just a 61.7 completion percentage as the primary man in coverage.
However, the Texans secondary has been sensational this season and it goes beyond the cornerback duo of Stingley and Lassiter. Eric Murray has put together a career year for the Texans, posting career-best marks in tackles (75) and pass breakups (10). Meanwhile, third-round rookie Calen Bullock looks to be quite the Day 2 find for the Texans. The first-year safety started 13 games for Houston this season and has 54 tackles, 11 pass breakups and five interceptions. In coverage, he’s allowing a 42.9 completion percentage and a 37.3 passer rating against.
Advantage: Texans
Kicker
Chiefs: Harrison Butker
Texans: Ka’imi Fairbairn
When you look at the production this season, Fairbairn has the edge over Butker across the board. However, Butker did miss time due to a knee injury, which diluted his totals. While still trailing Fairbairn, their field goal percentage (85.7% vs. 84%) and extra point percentage (94.4% vs. 93.5%) are pretty close to even. Given Butker’s experience kicking in a playoff setting, we’ll give him a slight edge. That said, Fairbairn was automatic during Wild Card Weekend, so there should be plenty of confidence on both sides when they send out their kickers on Saturday.
Advantage: Chiefs
