Here’s the breakdown for what to expect from the Longhorns as Arch Manning takes over
Arch Manning’s tenure as Texas’ full-time starting quarterback begins with a bang on Aug. 30, when the Longhorns travel to Ohio State in a rematch from the College Football Playoff semifinals. It won’t be the first start of his career, but it will be his first as the program’s unquestioned QB1 following Wednesday’s news that Quinn Ewers is declaring for the 2025 NFL Draft.
From there, things lighten up considerably for Texas, which is expected to enter the 2025 season as a top-five team, despite the losses of several offensive linemen and a handful of key pass-catchers. Just two of Texas’ eight SEC opponents finished the 2024 season with a winning record against league competition.
Between facing the Buckeyes in Week 1 and a showdown at Georgia in Week 12, the Longhorns won’t see a single opponent that finished the 2024 season ranked in the CFP Top 25. However, there will still be high-pressure moments for Manning, whose only starts so far came against overmatched foes Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State while Ewers dealt with an oblique injury.
Among the key contests will be a showdown with rising star quarterback DJ Lagway at Florida on Oct. 4, followed by the all-important Red River Rivalry contest with Oklahoma the following week. Texas is expected to compete for the SEC title and return to the CFP as Manning takes over following two seasons as Ewers’ understudy.
How practical is that? Here’s a breakdown of how Texas’ 2024 season might go with Manning leading the way
Texas 2025 football schedule
| Date | Opponent | 2024 Record |
|---|---|---|
| Aug. 30 | at Ohio State | 13-2 |
| Sept. 6 | San Jose State | 7-5 |
| Sept. 13 | UTEP | 3-9 |
| Sept. 27 | Sam Houston State | 10-3 |
| Oct. 4 | at Florida | 8-5 |
| Oct. 11 | Oklahoma (Dallas) | 6-7 |
| Oct. 18 | at Kentucky | 4-8 |
| Oct. 25 | at Mississippi State | 2-10 |
| Nov. 1 | Vanderbilt | 7-6 |
| Nov. 15 | at Georgia | 11-3 |
| Nov. 22 | Arkansas | 7-6 |
| Nov. 29 | Texas A&M | 8-5 |
Blockbuster beginning
Games (1): at Ohio State (Aug. 30)
Ohio State is expected to lose considerable production from its defense as the Buckeyes currently have six defenders ranked among the top 100 in the 2025 CBS Sports NFL Draft Prospect Rankings. But the Longhorns will also be breaking in several new offensive players in key positions when they head to the Horseshoe to open the 2025 season for a blockbuster matchup. Thus, it’ll be an early litmus test for two revamped units after the Buckeyes’ defense got the best of the Ewers-led Longhorns in key moments during the Cotton Bowl.
Manning has competed 63 of 95 career passes with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. But none of those pass attempts have come in a true road environment. Though he logged three runs at Texas A&M in November, he didn’t attempt a pass at Kyle Field. Asking any quarterback — even one with Manning’s talent — to win at Ohio State in their first career road start is a tall order.
Projected record: 0-1
September slowdown
Games (3): vs. San Jose State (Sept. 6), vs. UTEP (Sept. 13), vs. Sam Houston (Sept. 27)
September is a chance for Texas to take a deep breath, build some chemistry and prepare for the fire of SEC play. The Longhorns can essentially treat the month like an NFL team might approach the preseason. To be fair, all three of these opponents are coming off bowl appearances. But none of the three have the talent to compete with the Longhorns over the course of a 60-minute game.
Texas should be favored three touchdowns or more in each game, and Manning should be able to take command of the offense during this stretch while developing connections with his receivers. While Manning is a capable runner, coach Steve Sarkisian would be smart to try and mitigate wear and tear on his star quarterback with a run of five straight weeks against SEC competition looming. The ideal scenario would be that Manning’s day is done early in each of these games as the Longhorns lean on a talented running back room after building big early leads.
Projected record: 3-0
October highlights
Games (2): at Florida (Oct. 4), vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 11)
Grab your popcorn, because the Arch Manning vs. DJ Lagway quarterback showdown of Week 6 will be must-see TV. The matchup is an NFL scout’s dream as it will showcase arguably the two most-talented quarterbacks in the sport in a high-stakes SEC matchup. Florida closed the 2024 season on a four-game winning streak that included wins over LSU and Ole Miss with Lagway at quarterback. It may be tempting for some Texas fans to pencil in the game as a win considering how uncompetitive the Gators were during a 49-17 loss at Texas in 2024. But that game happened before Lagway took over the starting job, and the 2025 contest will be played in hostile territory.
Then comes the all-important Oklahoma game. The Sooners will be eager to flush the misery of 2024’s lifeless 34-3 loss to Texas as they turn the page in Year 3 under coach Brent Venables. OU is brining in Washington State transfer John Mateer at quarterback, which will make this another captivating QB showdown. Look for Manning to establish his Heisman Trophy candidacy during this stretch.
Projected record: 2-0
Midseason malaise
Games (3): at Kentucky (Oct. 18), at Mississippi State (Oct. 25), vs. Vanderbilt (Nov. 1)
Texas should be more than a touchdown favorite in each of these conference games, but they won’t necessarily be easy. The stretch is sandwiched between the Red River Rivalry and a huge game at Georgia, which will put the pressure on Sarkisian and Manning to keep the Longhorns focused. Texas beat Kentucky and Mississippi State without much trouble in 2024. But after occupying the league’s cellar, both have nowhere to go but up in 2025.
Then, there’s Vanderbilt. With star quarterback Diego Pavia successfully suing the NCAA to obtain additional eligibility, the Commodores figure to be a tough out once again. The Longhorns gritted out a 27-24 win in Nashville in 2024 and should expect a similar challenge from the ‘Dores in 2025. A couple of tipped passes led to two costly interceptions from Ewers in that meeting. Tipped passes were a season-long issue for the Longhorns, and Manning’s mobility and pocket presence should help resolve that problem in 2025.
Projected record: 3-0
Tense finish
Games (3): at Georgia (Nov. 15), vs. Arkansas (Nov. 22), vs. Texas A&M (Nov. 29)
The finishing stretch begins with a brutal road trip to play what should be a hungry Georgia team. After consecutive seasons without reaching the CFP semifinals, the Bulldogs will be eager to reclaim their spot atop college football. Georgia beat Texas away from home twice in 2024, and Sanford Stadium should be in rare form as the Longhorns visit Athens, Georgia for the first time ever.
The Arkansas and Texas A&M games will each be challenging rivalry contests. The Aggies and defensive-minded head coach Mike Elko will be hungry to try and stifle Manning’s production, particularly if he enters the regular season’s final week in Heisman Trophy contention. However, both games come at home, and the Longhorns should be favored in each.
Projected record: 2-1
Summing it up
The blockbuster beginning and rivalry-fueled ending will each bring challenges. But Texas gets six of the SEC’s bottom seven teams from the 2024 conference standings and misses potentially thorny league foes like Alabama, LSU, Tennessee and Ole Miss. It’s a manageable enough slate to expect that Manning should lead the Longhorns to a 10-2 mark. That would be good enough to get Texas into the College Football Playoff (and potentially back to the SEC Championship Game). Manning’s mobility and leadership give Texas a golden opportunity to build on the strong foundation built by Ewers over the past two seasons.
Projected record: 10-2
