Here’s how each divisional-round team stacks up
Last year’s NFL playoffs taught us two things: The most talented team doesn’t always win the Super Bowl, and you should never count the Kansas City Chiefs out.
Against my better judgment last year, I tabbed the Chiefs as the NFL’s fourth-best remaining team ahead of the divisional round of the playoffs. As we all know, the Chiefs then proceeded to win road games at Buffalo and Baltimore en route to becoming the first team in 19 years to successfully repeat as Super Bowl champions. Adding insult to injury was Kansas City defeating my top-ranked team — the 49ers — in the big game.
The Chiefs are in an eerily similar spot now. Despite their 15-2 regular-season record, many are doubting their ability to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. A big reason for said pessimism is the fact that the Chiefs weren’t necessarily dominant during the season despite their gaudy record. Similar to last year, Kansas City’s skill positions appear to be lacking something, too, outside of quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce, though they do have some quality weapons (DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown) entering the postseason.
Where did I rank the Chiefs this time around? Find out below, as I’ve ranked each of the NFL’s remaining eight teams ahead of this week’s divisional round matchups. Also, check out the bracket and schedule for this weekend’s games here.
Somebody has to be last, and for a second straight year, that team is Houston. That’s truly not a knock on the Texans, who pulled off the biggest upset of wild-card weekend, and did so in convincing fashion, picking off Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert four times in a 32-12 win.
Houston’s pass rush is a force to be reckoned with, and it will undoubtedly gives Mahomes some fits on Saturday. But the Texans’ depleted receiving corps is the biggest reason why they’re sitting in this spot. Houston will need someone other than Nico Collins to step up if the Texans are going to have a shot at pulling off another upset.
Jayden Daniels is awesome, and the Commanders have had a fantastic season that now includes the franchise’s first playoff win in nearly 20 years. But there’s too many question marks that Dan Quinn’s team needs to answer if they’re going to advance to their first NFC title game since 1991, a game that was ironically played against the Lions, their next opponent.
Washington is going to have to run the ball better after averaging a minuscule 2.48 yards per carry against Tampa Bay. On defense, the Commanders are going to need to apply more pressure on Jared Goff after sacking Baker Mayfield just once.
It should be mentioned that Washington has more than a few things going for it heading into the divisional round. The Commanders were money on fourth down against Tampa Bay, going 3 of 5 that included a big touchdown pass from Daniels to Terry McLaurin. Washington’s defense held Tampa Bay’s offense to just 284 yards of total offense. It also pounced on Mayfield’s fumble late in the fourth quarter that set up the touchdown pass to McLaurin.
It’ll be tough, but the Commanders are capable of upsetting the Lions if more than a few things go their way. I’m just not banking on that to be the case.
Sean McVay’s team showed some serious resolve during Monday night’s “home” win over the Cardinals. The Rams’ win was a much-needed boost for a Los Angeles area that continues to deal with the devastating wildfires.
It’s hard to figure out, though, if Monday’s 27-9 win was more of a byproduct of the Rams playing extremely well or the Vikings laying an egg. It was probably a little bit of both; the Rams played arguably their best game of the season, while the Vikings had their worst outing of the 2024 campaign. Either way, the Rams deserve credit for beating a 14-win team by nearly 20 points.
The Rams’ win was spearheaded by things that they will try to emulate in Philadelphia. At the forefront of that is a pass rush that sacked Sam Darnold nine times, tying a playoff record. Los Angeles’ defense also forced two Darnold turnovers that included a 57-yard fumble return for a score by rookie phenom Jared Verse. Offensively, the Rams enjoyed good balance; Matthew Stafford threw two touchdowns, while Kyren Williams ran for 76 yards and also caught a touchdown pass.
Los Angeles will need to have that same offensive balance against the Eagles. It will also need to contain Saquon Barkley similarly to how it made Aaron Jones a non-factor on Monday night.
5. Bills
After years of trying, is this the one the Bills finally kick the door down? It’s starting to look that way, especially after last Sunday’s convincing win over the Broncos.
Buffalo’s success this season has been the byproduct of a defense that continues to get better, Josh Allen’s continued brilliance and the running of James Cook, who recorded his first career 100-yard rushing performance in the postseason against Denver.
The big question in Buffalo is whether or not Allen’s receiving corps will rise up in big moments. If they don’t, Bills fans will once again be left looking forward to next year. If they do, the Bills are more than capable of capturing their first Super Bowl win. The Bills, after all, were the only team to defeat a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team during the regular season. Buffalo also posted an impressive 48-42 win in Detroit in Week 15.
Buffalo did get blown out by Baltimore way back in Week 4 on the strength of Henry’s 199 yards on the ground. The Bills’ defense is surely motivated to make atones for that performance on Sunday night.
They may be ranked a little low, given their 15-3 record and league rankings in total offense and defense during the regular season. Philadelphia has a 2,000-yard rusher in Saquon Barkley, one of the league’s top quarterbacks in Jalen Hurts, two talented wideouts in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, and a defense that picked off Jordan Love three times in Sunday’s 22-10 win.
So why aren’t the Eagles ranked higher? The talent level of the three teams ahead of them has something to do with it, along with the fact that Hurts’ health has been an issue over the past several weeks. Hurts threw two touchdowns in Sunday’s win, but he completed just 13 of his 21 throws for a pedestrian 131 yards. Sure, the Eagles didn’t need a typical Hurts-like game to beat the Packers, but that likely won’t be the case moving forward, starting with this weekend’s game against Los Angeles.
3. Chiefs
As I said earlier, the Chiefs may not be the most talented team on paper. But they have the NFL’s best player in Mahomes, the league’s best coach in Andy Reid and the confidence that comes with winning the last two Super Bowls. That’s a pretty good recipe for success if you ask me.
On top of that, the Chiefs have the NFL’s fourth-ranked scoring defense that played an integral role in last year’s surprising Super Bowl run. Kansas City also still has one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Travis Kelce, who is also one of the most prolific performers in the history of the postseason.
It’s widely known that Kansas City’s talent at the skill positions is lacking a little. That may be true, but it didn’t stop the Chiefs from winning 15 regular-season games. And what they may lack in top end talent, they make up for in depth, especially with the recent return of Marquise Brown from injury. With Brown in tow, the Chiefs have a pretty good trio of wideouts that also includes seasoned veteran DeAndre Hopkins and first-round pick Xavier Worthy.
For me, the biggest question with the Chiefs may be at running back. If Isiah Pacheco is able to return to his pre-injury form, the Chiefs may be on their way to a third straight Super Bowl win.
2. Lions
Despite being hit with the injury bug late in the season, the Lions still managed to earn the No. 1 seed after closing out the regular season with three straight wins. The Lions’ final regular-season win was a decisive 31-9 win over the Vikings that saw Dan Campbell’s team play exceptionally well on both sides of the ball.
Specifically, Detroit’s secondary blanketed Minnesota’s receivers, thus making it nearly impossible for Sam Darnold to have success. It’ll be extremely difficult to beat the Lions if their pass defense (which was ranked 30th during the regular season in passing yards allowed) continues to play like that in the postseason.
The Lions’ recent defensive performances have been encouraging, but the engine driving Detroit’s hopeful Super Bowl run is still the offense, led by Jared Goff, wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown and running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who is on track to return for Saturday’s game against Washington. The Lions are holding out hope that pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson can come back from his injury to play in the Super Bowl if Detroit is able to get there.
Detroit was my pick to come out of the NFC prior to Week 1, and it remains my pick now. But their defense is a legitimate question mark.
The Ravens started 8-5, with self-inflicted wounds often playing a role in their losses. They have since won five straight games, largely due to the play of likely league MVP Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. The duo dominated the Steelers in the wild-card round; Henry rumbled for 186 yards and two scores, while Jackson threw a pair of scores, ran for 81 yards and took care of the football.
Jackson and Henry have been tremendous, but the Ravens are anything but a two-man show. Baltimore’s offense boats a tough, physical offensive line, two talented tight ends in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, and an underrated supporting cast at the skill positions, led by Zay Flowers, who missed Baltimore’s playoff win over Pittsburgh with an injury.
Defensively, the Ravens have one of the NFL’s top pass rushing duos in Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh. Baltimore’s secondary is spearheaded by two of the best defensive backs in the business in safety Kyle Harrison and Marlon Humphrey. And you can’t talk about Baltimore’s defense without mentioning perennial Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Queen and two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike.
Justin Tucker, the Ravens’ longest-tenured player, has re-gained his Hall of Fame touch since the team’s Week 14 bye. Tucker hasn’t missed a kick over that span while making both of his filed goal attempts beyond 50 yards.
If they can get past the divisional round, the Ravens might be my pick to not only get to the Super Bowl, but to win it. But first, they’ll need to beat a Bills team on Sunday that they demolished, 35-10, when the two teams played back in Week 4.
