Here’s a look at some of the top props for Wild Card Weekend
The NFL playoffs have arrived, and while the final 14 teams try to thrust themselves into immortality with a Super Bowl win, we jamokes will sit back and try to profit off of their on-field success. The postseason brings with it an added layer of intensity, and teams will lean on the strengths of their respective rosters as they look to advance, which should help us in the betting markets.
While you can find my picks for each game for Wild Card Weekend in my previously published column, I’m diving into the prop markets these playoffs as well. To give you a little insight into my prop strategy, I try to hunt for Overs. Why? Because it’s fun. Of course, there are times when Unders are the proper and profitable play, but it oftentimes feels like I’m rooting against fun in those circumstances. With that in mind, you’ll see a collection of Over plays that I like this weekend, which includes us targeting the tight end position for two picks.
NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ladd McConkey Over 72.5 receiving yards (-110)
Ladd McCkonkey has been one of the more underrated rookie standouts this season. He finished up his first year in the NFL with over 80 receptions and 1,100 yards receiving but doesn’t get quite the love that some other rookie pass catchers are getting. That may be helping us here with this receiving yards prop, which is quite attainable.
McConkey finished the season crossing this number in six of his last seven games. In that time, McConkey is averaging 93.9 receiving yards per game. Houston’s secondary is a bit stingy, but McConkey should get the volume of targets to get us within range here. I’d also sprinkle a bit on his anytime touchdown prop at +140.
Mark Andrews Over 47.5 receiving yards (-125)
With Zay Flowers out, his near-seven targets per game need to go somewhere and I think Mark Andrews is going to be a key benefactor. The tight end has long been a trusted option for Lamar Jackson, and the two have been getting hot down the stretch. Over the final six games of the year, Andrews is averaging 49 receiving yards per contest and has gone over this receiving yards prop in seven of his 17 games played this season. Meanwhile, Andrews faces a Steelers defense that is pretty susceptible to tight ends. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half in receiving yards allowed to tight ends this season, which includes Cincinnati’s Mike Gesicki popping off for 68 receiving yards in Week 18. Andrews also caught four of his six targets for 37 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers back in Week 16 when Flowers was healthy.
T.J. Hockenson Over 42.5 receiving yards (-120)
T.J. Hockenson was a nonfactor in the regular-season finale against the Lions, but he’s largely been solid since coming off of IR midseason. He’s gone over this number in five of his 10 games played this season, including three of his last five appearances. It’s also a smash matchup as the Rams are weak against tight ends, surrendering the fourth-most receiving yards and third-most receptions in the NFL to the position group.
Bucky Irving Over 86.5 rushing yards (-125)
The Buccaneers will likely want to dictate the pace of this game and not let Jayden Daniels run wild. One way to do that is to establish a strong rushing attack, which pairs well against Washington’s poor run defense. The Commanders are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards to backs this season and the third-highest yards-per-rush average. This sets Bucky Irving up nicely to go over a rushing yard total that he’s exceeded in five of his final seven games to round out his regular season.
Josh Allen Over 20.5 completions (-115)
I think this game has the potential to be closer than folks expect, which means Josh Allen won’t be taking his foot off the gas. He’s gone over this completions total in eight of his 17 games played this season and now faces a Broncos defense that is giving up the sixth-most completions (23.06) to quarterbacks this season.
