Here’s a look at how much faith we have in each playoff quarterback
Like it or not, when it comes to NFL postseason success, we center everything around the quarterback position. While finding an above-average signal-caller is oftentimes the difference between getting into the playoffs or being on the outside looking in, having one of “the guys” at this position has franchises firmly in the Super Bowl conversation on a yearly basis.
As we gear up for this latest mad dash to the winner’s circle where the Lombardi Trophy is waiting for one team and one quarterback, we will look at this year’s crop of playoff quarterbacks and determine how much we trust them in the playoff setting. Can this quarterback go into a hostile environment and win a game? Can he work a two-minute drill to set up a game-winning field goal with no timeouts and a championship on the line? Even if you had a slight pause when answering one of those questions, that means there is a slight seed of doubt.
Below, you’ll find all 14 playoff quarterbacks corralled into tiers from most trustworthy to least trustworthy as we kick off the postseason.
Confidence level: Couldn’t be higher, winning is inevitable
When it comes to winning in the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes deserves to be in a tier of his own. It doesn’t matter if he’s down and there’s just 13 seconds on the clock, the Kansas City Chiefs star somehow finds ways to win. That specific trait, dark magic or whatever you want to call it flickers and flashes with other quarterbacks we’ll discuss as we move down this list, but it burns bright with Mahomes.
If it’s a do-or-die situation and you could draft any quarterback in the NFL currently to lead your team on a game-winning drive, you’d be crazy not to take Mahomes. Winning at the highest level and in the most pressure-filled moment feels like a Sunday stroll through the park for No. 15 in Kansas City, who enters these playoffs with three Lombardi Trophies already on his mantel.
Confidence level: Can hoist a Lombardi Trophy
- Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
- Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles,
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
This collection of quarterbacks shouldn’t feel snubbed by landing in this second tier. Every one of them is capable of flexing their immense talent and dragging their teams to a championship. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are MVP frontrunners who, yes, have some playoff questions, but both have brought their teams to the AFC Championships in the past. The question of whether or not they can win a title, in my eyes, is more nitpicking than it is anything of true substance. They can, and one of them might even do it this year. If either Allen or Jackson was my quarterback as I embarked into the playoffs, I’d feel great about my chances.
The same can be said for Jalen Hurts, who, unlike Allen and Jackson, has actually taken his team to a Super Bowl appearance. It’s been a little bit of an odd year for Philadelphia’s offense as it has had some inside-the-locker room drama, but that doesn’t take away from Hurts being an elite talent at the quarterback position who has won at a high clip since coming into the league.
You might be surprised to see Matthew Stafford land in this group, but he’s only one of three quarterbacks in these playoffs who have won a Super Bowl before. And it wouldn’t shock me if he leads the Rams on a little bit of a run. On top of having championship experience, Stafford is playing some good ball coming into the playoffs. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns and just one interception in his last seven games played. If he continues at that clip, Los Angeles is sneaky dangerous.
Finally, Jared Goff sneaks in to round out this group. Some might consider him to be the most unproven of this bunch, but let’s not forget that he did play in a Super Bowl and he’s only improved since then. Now with Detroit, Goff is driving the bus of a high-octane offense that he’s been the main piece of. He won’t be the reason Detroit fails to live up to its potential.
Confidence level: Everything needs to line up right
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
- Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
There are a few quarterbacks who could easily jump up to the next tier in these confidence rankings with a strong playoff performance this go-around. At this point, however, most are either too green or possibly past their prime to know if they can solely lift their franchise through the playoffs. If everything is solid around them, they absolutely could be a part of a championship roster, which is the key difference here.
For C.J. Stroud, he was tremendous as a rookie, leading the Texans to a playoff win and an appearance in the divisional round. However, he’s only 1-5 against winning teams this season, which has my antenna up. Justin Herbert also has some questions. He was on hand for a 27-point collapse in his lone playoff appearance during the 2022 wild-card round. The Chargers quarterback has also beaten up on bad teams this year, owning an 8-1 record against clubs who are .500 or worse. Against teams above .500, Herbert’s Chargers are 3-5.
Baker Mayfield appears to have the demeanor that works well in playoff settings, but I think he’ll be a piece to Tampa Bay’s playoff puzzle rather than the main driver. The Bucs will need Mike Evans and Bucky Irving to fire on all cylinders to get the best version of Mayfield.
Sam Darnold worked himself into MVP conversations for his rather remarkable resurgence as the quarterback of the Vikings. However, he’s a virtual unknown in the playoffs. Monday’s matchup against the Rams will be Darnold’s first-ever playoff game. In the Week 18 do-or-die matchup against Detroit, Darnold wilted just a touch, which has some doubt creeping in especially now that he has to go on the road throughout this run.
When it comes to Jordan Love, there’s been a bit of inconsistency that has us pausing before we vault him up as a bona fide playoff performer. He did throw for 272 yards and three touchdowns in the wild-card round last year but then had two interceptions in a loss to San Francisco in the divisional round. If he keeps it clean, Green Bay is frisky. If he’s loose with the football, it could be a brief playoff appearance.
Lastly, we have Russell Wilson in this tier. He’s one of the three former Super Bowl champions in these playoffs, but this isn’t the same quarterback from those days in Seattle. The Steelers have lost four straight coming into these playoffs and Wilson has been unable to get the offense over 17 in any of those games. If I can’t depend on my quarterback to get me to 20 points, how confident can I really be in him to lead me to the playoffs? That said, if the defense turns it around and the Steelers get contributions from its skill position players, it won’t fall all on Wilson’s shoulders.
Confidence level: Too young to know
When it comes to rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs, you simply don’t know what you’re going to get. Only three quarterbacks in NFL History have won road playoff games, which is exactly what both Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are being tasked to do. It’s worth noting that both Daniels and Nix are older quarterback prospects who have played a lot of football at the collegiate level in some hostile environments, which should help them this weekend. That said, no rookie quarterback has ever led his team to a Super Bowl, so the ceiling for this postseason for both of them is relatively low. Going forward, however, I expect both Daniels and Nix to be impact playoff quarterbacks during their careers.
