We’ll find out the first national title game participant on Thursday night.
The first national title game participant will be decided on Thursday night in Miami when Notre Dame and Penn State square off. Here’s what you need to know ahead of the College Football Playoff semifinal.
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Date: Jan. 9 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN | Line: Notre Dame -2.5 | Total: 45.5
How these teams got here
Notre Dame scored its biggest bowl win in decades on Jan. 2 with a 23-10 win over No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The Irish flipped the game totally in their favor in a minute span surrounding halftime as Georgia was unable to mount a comeback. That win came after Notre Dame took down Indiana in the first on-campus College Football Playoff game ever on Dec. 21.
Penn State beat Boise State 31-14 and could have blown the Broncos out by an even bigger margin with a better performance. The Nittany Lions got two pick-6s in the first half of their first-round game against SMU in an easy 38-10 win that was over well before halftime.
How the QBs stack up
Riley Leonard continues to be the running weapon Notre Dame needs to close out games. Leonard didn’t do much through the air against Georgia; he was just 15-of-24 passing for 90 yards and a TD. But he rushed 14 times for 80 yards and helped put the Bulldogs away in the fourth quarter with a clock-killing drive. His rushing total against Georgia was the most since carrying 10 times for 83 yards against Navy on Oct. 26. For the season, Leonard has rushed 149 times for 831 yards and 15 TDs.
Drew Allar’s stats haven’t been spectacular in the College Football Playoff, but he threw for three scores against the Broncos. Allar was 13-of-25 for 171 yards against Boise State after he was 13-of-22 for 127 yards against SMU. Allar’s completion percentage is over 67% for the season, but he hasn’t completed over 60% of his passes in any of the three games since the end of the regular season.
Injury concerns for both teams
Both teams have star players dealing with injuries. Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter missed the entire second half of the Fiesta Bowl with an apparent left shoulder injury. Carter has 22 tackles for loss and 11 sacks this season. Penn State coach James Franklin hasn’t given a clear update on Carter’s status, but the junior seemed to indicate in a social media post that he’d be on the field Thursday night.
Notre Dame lost DE Rylie Moss to a leg injury against Indiana and defensive lineman Howard Cross went down in the second half of the win over Georgia. However, Cross returned to practice over the weekend and looks set to play.
Jeremiyah Love’s status could be a bigger concern. The running back broke a 98-yard run against Indiana but didn’t play much over the rest of that game and was clearly limited in the Sugar Bowl thanks to a knee injury he’s been dealing with.
Players to watch
Notre Dame RB Jadarian Price: The sophomore would likely become Notre Dame’s lead back if Love is unable to be anywhere near full strength Thursday night. As Love has been hobbled, Price has had at least 10 carries over the last four games for the Irish. He had more than eight carries just once over Notre Dame’s first 10 games of the season.
For the year, Price has just 110 carries but he’s rushed for 720 yards and seven scores. His yards per carry was even gaudier before the College Football Playoff, as Leonard has been the team’s biggest rushing threat outside of Love’s big run against the Hoosiers. Over two CFP games, Price has 21 carries for 69 yards.
Penn State RB Kaytron Allen: Allen has been fantastic during the postseason. He rushed 14 times for 124 yards in the Nittany Lions’ Big Ten title game loss to Oregon and had 11 carries for 70 yards and two touchdowns against SMU.
In the Fiesta Bowl, Allen rushed 17 times for 134 yards as the Broncos struggled to tackle him. He crossed the 1,000-yard mark in that game too and has 201 carries for 1,026 yards and eight touchdowns on the season. With Nick Singleton also healthy in the backfield, Penn State has a 1-2 punch at running back that can rival Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
Key to the game
We’re fascinated to see how Notre Dame plans for Penn State TE Tyler Warren. He had two TD catches against Boise State and is a matchup nightmare for most any opponent. Will Notre Dame assign defensive back Xavier Watts to shadow him most of the night or will they rotate defenders? Opposing quarterbacks have attempted 397 passes against Notre Dame this season. Per TruMedia’s data, QBs are just 120-of-253 for 1,358 yards and seven TDs with 13 interceptions when Notre Dame has played man defense.
If Notre Dame blankets Warren, can someone else on the outside step up for Penn State? Harrison Wallace III is Penn State’s leading wide receiver, but he has fewer than half the catches Warren does with 46 grabs for 723 yards and four TDs.
