The Nittany Lions and the Mustangs are searching for their first College Football Playoff win
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(6) Penn State is set to host (11) SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday. Both the Nittany Lions and the Mustangs are making their playoff debut after benefitting from the expanded 12-team selection process.
Penn State went 11-1 in the regular season, with its lone loss at home against fellow playoff team Ohio State, but secured a Big Ten Championship Game berth when the Buckeyes fell in their regular-season finale against Michigan. The Nittany Lions pushed top-ranked Oregon for the Big Ten title, but the Ducks were able to walk out with a 45-37 win in their first year as conference members.
Penn State still comfortably made the playoff as the second-highest at-large seed. SMU, meanwhile, had to sweat its postseason fate a little more. The Mustangs also went 11-1 in the regular season — their lone loss coming in the nonconference against a strong BYU team — and were the only ACC team to go undefeated in conference play despite this being their first year with the league. Even so, they lost 34-31 in the ACC Championship Game to Clemson. That opened the door for the selection committee to bounce SMU in favor of another bubble team, but the Mustangs still landed the last at-large spot.
How to watch Penn State vs. SMU live
Date: Saturday, Dec. 21 | Time: Noon ET
Location: Beaver Stadium — University Park, Pennsylvania
TV: TNT | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Penn State vs. SMU: Players to watch
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State: Allar, who has flourished under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, is playing the best football of his career. Through Penn State’s 13 games, he completed 69.1% of his passes — up almost 10% from 2023 — for 2,894 yards (another career high) and 21 touchdowns. He’s also averaging 8.9 yards per attempt, compared to 6.8 in 2023. Allar looks comfortable and confident entering the College Football Playoff, and he’s not scared to take shots down the field, which will test SMU’s defense.
Kevin Jennings, QB, SMU: Jennings didn’t enter the year as SMU’s starter, but he became undeniable when the Mustangs benched Preston Stone. Jennings went 9-0 as starter in the regular season while leading SMU’s offense and finished the year with 3,050 yards and 22 touchdowns. He does some of his best work outside the pocket and can turn broken plays into significant gains with his athleticism. His legs are a legitimate threat that will keep the Nittany Lions honest.
Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State: Warren, winner of the 2024 Mackey Award, is one of the best multi-dimensional threats in college football. Penn State has quite literally moved him all over the field — he has taken snaps at tight end, wide receiver, slot receiver, quarterback and even offensive line — and he excels in every role. He has 1,062 yards and six touchdowns receiving, four touchdowns rushing and one touchdown passing, for good measure.
Brashard Smith, RB, SMU: Smith, who played under SMU coach Rhett Lashlee at Miami, transferred to SMU in 2024. The Mustangs converted him from wide receiver to running back, and he has taken to the transition quite well. In fact, that’s a massive understatement. Smith earned first-team All-ACC honors after rushing for 1,270 yards and 14 touchdowns. He also caught 35 passes out of the backfield for 303 yards and four touchdowns. Moving Smith to running back allowed him to make the most of his agility and ability to break tackles; he’s averaging a blistering 5.9 yards per carry.
Adbul Carter, DL, Penn State: Carter has played all over Penn State’s defense in his three years with the Nittany Lions, but he settled in at defensive end in 2024. It was the right move. Carter made CBS Sports’ All-America First Team after tallying 10 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and three pass deflections.
Isaiah Nwokobia, DB, SMU: Nwokobia, a first-team All-ACC pick at safety, has been an eraser on the backend for SMU this year. He’s second on the team in total tackles with 96, 3.5 for a loss, and he’s tied for the lead with three interception. He also has three pass breakups and two quarterback hurries, flashing the versatility that he brings to SMU’s defense.
Penn State vs. SMU prediction, pick
On paper, Penn State and SMU are fairly similar teams. They’re both great at running the football and have quarterbacks that can take the top off of a defense. The Nittany Lions do have a distinct advantage on the defensive side of the football, where they’re loaded with solid players, but SMU’s offense can score in droves — as it did when it erased two separate 17-point deficits in the ACC Championship Game. Penn State will likely win, benefitting from homefield advantage, but SMU will keep it closer than the line suggests. Pick: SMU +8.5
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for three outright upsets during college football’s championship week. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
