SportsLine’s model simulated Saturday’s Penn State Nittany Lions vs. SMU Mustangs College Football Playoff first round matchup 10,000 times
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The 11th-seeded SMU Mustangs and sixth-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions kick off their College Football Playoff with a first-round matchup on Saturday at University Park, Pa. The winner will advance to face No. 3 Boise State on Dec. 31 at the Fiesta Bowl. The Mustangs (11-2), who are coming off a 34-31 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, last won a national championship in 1982. The Nittany Lions (11-2), who lost 45-37 to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, have won two national championships, the last coming in 1986. Both teams enter with most of their key players available, though SMU star tight end RJ Maryland and Penn State offensive tackle Anthony Donkoh were both lost to season-ending injuries earlier this year.
Kickoff is set for noon ET at Beaver Stadium. This will be the third meeting between the schools, with Penn State owning a 1-0-1 series edge. The Nittany Lions are 8.5-point favorites in the latest SMU vs. Penn State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 54. Before making any Penn State vs. SMU picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it went a profitable 43-34 on top-rated picks during the 2024 regular season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen impressive returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on SMU vs. Penn State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines and trends for Penn State vs. SMU:
SMU vs. Penn State spread: Penn State -8.5
SMU vs. Penn State over/under: 54 points SMU vs. Penn State money line: Penn State -334, SMU +261SMU: The Mustangs have covered the spread in eight of their last 14 games (+1.40 units) PSU: The Nittany Lions have hit the Under in five of their last eight home games (+1.70 units) SMU vs. Penn State picks: See picks at SportsLineSMU vs. Penn State streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Top SMU vs. Penn State predictions
For SMU vs. Penn State in the College Football Playoff, the SportsLine model is going over (54) on the total in nearly 60% of simulations, projecting 60 total points. The Nittany Lions have gone over in each of the last four games, scoring a combined 82 points with Oregon in their last matchup.
Both offenses have been humming. In the loss to Clemson, SMU rolled up 458 yards, including 304 yards passing by sophomore quarterback Kevin Jennings. Senior running back Brashard Smith also combined for 147 all-purpose yards, including 113 yards rushing, with one receiving touchdown. Senior wide receiver Roderick Daniels Jr. added a team-high eight receptions for 97 yards and a score.
The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, rolled up 523 total yards in the loss to Oregon. Junior quarterback Drew Allar combined for 280 total yards and four touchdowns, including 226 yards passing with three touchdowns and 54 rushing with one score. Penn State junior running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton also had big games against the Ducks with both surpassing 100 yards. Allen rolled up 124 yards and one touchdown, while Singleton had 105 yards. See which team to pick here.
How to make Penn State vs. SMU picks
In addition to going Over on the total, it also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Penn State vs. SMU, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.
