Projecting pitchers is in some ways an exercise in futility, but we do what we can
The truth is that half of all prospects are pitchers. Between the decreasing workload expectations and the sheer number of injuries at the position, many of the career-altering variety, an organization needs a huge backlog of arms.
But for the same reason the backlog is needed, we’re not so good at predicting which pitching prospects will land. Some of today’s standouts took a conventional path there, like Paul Skenes, George Kirby, and Dylan Cease. Others rose from relative obscurity, like Cole Ragans, Logan Webb, and Justin Steele. It doesn’t mean we don’t try identify the pitching prospects most likely to turn into something, but if you get attached to anyone, he’s liable to break your heart.
Top Prospects: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | P
And because of that, I’ve become increasingly agnostic about the whole process, more likely to play hunches than simply concede to the consensus. This is especially true toward the back end of this top 30, and frankly, I could have kept going. You’ll see that I’ve included a couple dozen honorable mentions, half being personal favorites and half being of a more conventional bend.
If you’re wondering where Christian Scott, Drew Thorpe, Zebby Matthews, and Brant Hurter are, note that they don’t qualify for this list. Some prospect evaluators use 50 major-league innings as the maximum threshold for inclusion, but officially, 45 days on the active roster also ends a player’s rookie eligibility. All four have exceeded that second number. (Though, frankly, I’m not sure they’d make the cut even if they hadn’t.)
Note: These rankings are intended mainly for Dynasty use, emphasizing long-term value over a quick payoff, but to say proximity holds no weight wouldn’t be entirely accurate either. Not all of these players will contribute in 2025 — most, in fact, will not — but among prospects, they’re the names Fantasy Baseballers most need to know.
1. Roki Sasaki, free agent
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: Japan
NPB stats: 10-5, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 111 IP, 32 BB, 129 K
Normally, it’s a stretch to call Japanese imports prospects even though they technically meet the definition, but then, rarely do they arrive as young as 23 and with so much projection still ahead of them. Sasaki may not be as accomplished as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but between a fastball that’s been clocked as high as 100 mph and a splitter that simply vanishes as it crosses the plate, the upside is plain to see.
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: did not play — Tommy John surgery
2022 stats (minors): 6-2, 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 103 2/3 IP, 25 BB, 155 K
Painter’s talent is such that he was poised to win a spot in the Phillies rotation as a 19-year-old, but then Tommy John came to call, bringing with it the usual uncertainties. Fortunately, he already had a chance to address those uncertainties in the Arizona Fall League, dominating with a 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 across six starts. I’m inclined to rank him as if the surgery never happened.
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 5-3, 2.36 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 91 2/3 IP, 45 BB, 96 K
Major-league stats: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
While most still consider Jobe to be the game’s top pitching prospect because of the incredible spin rates on his pitches (four of which grade 60 or better, according to Baseball America), his strike-throwing and bat-missing both took a considerable step back in 2024. It didn’t stop the Tigers from calling him up in September, and they’ll likely let him finish his development in the majors this April.
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 0-4, 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 88 1/3 IP, 24 BB, 115 K
Schultz finally stayed healthy enough to confirm his ace trajectory and even added a couple miles per hour to his fastball and slider to make them more devastating. The comparison to Chris Sale is almost too easy since both came through the White Sox system, but can you think of a better one for a tall (6-foot-9) and lanky left-hander with a low three-quarters delivery and control that’s almost too good to believe?
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 10-7, 3.08 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 119 2/3 IP, 41 BB, 148 K
A shining example of a project gone right, the multi-talented Chandler has fashioned himself into a top pitching prospect over the past two years with considerable control gains and a killer changeup to go with his high-90s fastball. He’ll eventually slot in as the Pirates’ No. 2 starter in between Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, and “eventually” could be as soon as April.
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 8-5, 2.76 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 143 1/3 IP, 49 BB, 202 K
In between his fourth-round selection in 2023 and his professional debut in 2024, Mathews picked up 3-4 mph on his already analytically friendly fastball, transforming him from control-and-command lefty to burgeoning ace. Armed also with a plus changeup and slider, Mathews finished the year with a 28-strikeout advantage over every other minor-leaguer, breezing through three levels before finally hitting a speed bump at Triple-A.
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: did not play — workload management
The second overall pick in this past year’s draft hasn’t made his professional debut yet but is expected to start out at Double-A and shouldn’t need long to marinate in the minors. He has a true frontline arsenal, his fastball, and slider both earning 70 grades from Baseball America, but some reports have suggested the fastball is more hittable than you’d think given its base characteristics. (Then again, we heard similar things about Paul Skenes.)
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: High-A
Minor-league stats: 7 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
The fifth overall pick in this past year’s draft gives the White Sox sort of a Mini-Me of Noah Schultz, standing “only” 6-foot-3 but also overwhelming hitters with his fastball and slider from an almost sidearm left-handed delivery. The low release point gives his fastball an ideal shape to go with ideal velocity (brushing triple digits), and the sweep on his slider will make hitting him an impossible task for left-handed batters.
Age (on opening day): 25
Where he played in 2024: Rookie, Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 0-1, 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 36 2/3 IP, 5 BB, 55 K
Major-league stats: 0-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 11 2/3 IP, 6 BB, 14 K
The former collegiate star returned from Tommy John surgery with a best-in-class slider that propelled him to some of the most absurd percentages you’ll ever see in the minors, his 71 percent strike rate and 23 percent swinging-strike rate both rating as well beyond elite. His late-season call-up showed that major-leaguers will just spit on that pitch, though, signaling that he needs something else to play off the fastball.
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 7-4, 3.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 116 1/3 IP, 42 BB, 131 K
One of the breakout pitching prospects of 2024, Sproat can reach triple digits with his fastball, but it’s really just a setup for a deep secondary arsenal highlight by a changeup and sweeper. He had a 2.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9 in 17 appearances prior to his late move up to Triple-A, and his poor performance there wasn’t enough to dampen enthusiasm for what may be a less heralded Grayson Rodriguez.
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, High-A
Minor-league stats: 6-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 96 IP, 38 BB, 120 K
White would rate well purely on stuff — his fastball, slider, and changeup all earning high marks from scouts — but he also offers an unusual look where his arm starts low and zips to the plate with a short motion, sort of like RIch Hill. His 2024 took off when he made his slider into more of a sweeper, throwing more strikes and pitching to a 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 11.0 K/9 in 13 starts at High-A.
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 6-2, 2.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 118 IP, 47 BB, 169 K
Dollander will show up higher on real-life rank lists assessing him purely on talent, but the assessment here is how useful he’ll be for Fantasy. And as you’re probably aware, the track record for Rockies pitchers is bleak. So much of Dollander’s success, though, comes from a fastball whose outlier secondary characteristics made it tops in the minor leagues in swinging-strike rate and could make it the perfect weapon for the thin air of Coors Field, which mostly ruins pitchers by flattening their breaking balls.
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2024: Low-A
Minor-league stats: 5-3, 2.33 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 85 IP, 27 BB, 129 K
Sykora’s professional debut saw him put together a 1.45 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and 14.2 K/9 over his final 16 starts with a .136 batting average against and 22 percent swinging-strike rate — just comical numbers. You can’t take them totally seriously since they came at Low-A, but his arsenal is genuinely electric, featuring a high-90s fastball and two secondaries, a slider and splitter, capable of generating whiffs.
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, High-A
Minor-league stats: 4-10, 4.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 103 2/3 IP, 48 BB, 157 K
If you’re underwhelmed by Susana’s ERA, note that he greatly improved his control at the end of May and went on to deliver a 2.79 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 14.3 K/9 over his final 16 starts. He stands out most for his sheer velocity, his fastball peaking at 103 mph, but his slider is the better swing-and-miss pitch. There’s clearly ace upside here, and the final three months of 2024 were a critical first step toward him realizing it.
15. Alejandro Rosario, Rangers
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, High-A
Minor-league stats: 4-5, 2.24 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 88 1/3 IP, 13 BB, 129 K
Rosario’s time at the University of Miami ended disastrously, allowing the Rangers to grab him with a fifth-round pick and go to work undoing all the damage done by the Hurricanes coaching staff. He now locates his fastball at the top of the zone, taking advantage of its elite carry, which has turned him into a bat-missing monster. Hard to say whether his 13.1 K/9 or 1.3 BB/9 is more impressive.
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: Double-A
Minor-league stats: 4-3, 2.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 79 2/3 IP, 26 BB, 109 K
The prospect gurus identified Hence as a top-tier talent early in his development, and while the progress has been slow, he finally delivered a stat line befitting of those projections with a fastball that plays up at the top of the zone and a nightmare of a changeup. The concern for him now is durability. Injuries have plagued his minor-league career — and that’s before he’s even come close to an ace workload yet.
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 2-1, 4.46 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 34 1/3 IP, 13 BB, 40 K
Horton appeared to be on the fast track when he had a 1.10 ERA through four Double-A starts, but the move up to Triple-A was unkind and ultimately ended with a strained lat — an injury that likely contributed to his struggles, seeing as his fastball lost both velocity and carry. You may be inclined, then, to give him a pass, but with a Tommy John surgery in his history, Horton now has major durability concerns in addition to these performance questions.
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 6-4, 3.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 108 2/3 IP, 24 BB, 113 K
Major-league stats: 2-2, 1.17 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 30 2/3 IP, 14 BB, 22 K
Lowder is the sort of prospect you either get, or you don’t. It’s unclear if his strengths — namely the immaculate locating and sequencing of four average pitches — will baffle major-league hitters as it has collegiate and minor-league hitters. The “yeah but” is that his first six major-league starts yielded a 1.17 ERA, continuing the trend of performance over projection, but even then, it’s hard to find any positives in the underlying numbers. Still, many believe.
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 3-5, 3.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 97 1/3 IP, 60 BB, 127 K
The story hasn’t changed for Misiorowski. He still boasts some of the best stuff in all the minors — inviting Tyler Glasnow comparisons with his overpowering fastball and wipeout slider, both made more effective by his 6-foot-7 reach — but another year with no measurable control gains drops him further down the rankings. The Brewers actually shifted him to the bullpen late in the year, presumably just as an audition for a late-season promotion, but he’s nearing the point where it may be a more permanent solution.
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 6-5, 3.10 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 93 IP, 46 BB, 135 K
The presumption coming out of college was that Klassen couldn’t possibly throw enough strikes to work as a starter, but the Phillies cleaned up his delivery, broadened his arsenal with a slider and cutter that now both rate as plus, and let him cook for four months before dealing him to the Angels. His control slipped thereafter, which is why the relief projections persist, but his 2024 represented more than just a glimmer of hope for a genuinely high-end outcome.
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 6-4, 3.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 113 IP, 47 BB, 160 K
The Statcast alarm sounded early in 2024 for Tong, a seventh-round pick whose fastball was grading out as plus-plus despite modest velocity, bolstered by a one-of-a-kind delivery that creates a rising effect from an over-the-top motion. It makes for a sort of mind trip for hitters in addition to having the optimal shape. He battled control as the year played out but eventually reached Double-A, where he debuted with six no-hit innings.
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 9-7, 2.52 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 135 2/3 IP, 39 BB, 147 K
Major-league stats: 1-2, 9.58 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 10 1/3 IP, 7 BB, 8 K
Dana’s poor major-league showing may threaten to sink his prospect stock, but the truth is he had no business being there as a 20-year-old, representing the latest in a long line of overzealous promotions by the Angels. The way he breezed through Double-A was accomplishment enough for his age and a testament to his four-pitch arsenal and plus command. There isn’t ace upside here, but Dana safely projects as a No. 3 workhorse type, perhaps in the Jose Berrios mold.
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 5-7, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 126 2/3 IP, 57 BB, 145 K
As with outfielder Zyhir Hope, the Dodgers nabbed Ferris from the Cubs in the Michael Busch deal and immediately went to work making him as good of a prospect as Busch ever was. He’s less an overpowering pitcher than a deceptive one with a deep arsenal that’s difficult to square up. Control is a work in progress, but he lowered his walk rate over his final 14 starts for a 1.96 ERA.
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 7-3, 2.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 117 1/3 IP, 19 BB, 115 K
Harrington isn’t going to wow anyone with pure stuff but earns high marks for pitchability and especially command, which Baseball America grades as a 70 on the 20-80 scale. It’s as an Aaron Nola sort of profile, and if his deep arsenal and ability to locate it gives him close to a strikeout per inning in the majors, as it has in the minors, he could be a big success in Fantasy, if an understated one.
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: Rookie, Low-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 0-1, 5.19 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 17 1/3 IP, 16 BB, 27 K
There’s a tendency in the prospecting world to bury pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery until they prove healthy and effective again (probably because it presents an opportunity to write about someone else), but I maintain that Tiedemann is no run-of-the-mill pitching prospect; his already plus stuff playing up due to his low release point. He made it to Double-A as a 19-year-old, remember, posting strikeout rates that bordered on the absurd, and to me, that’s worth waiting for.
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 4-10, 5.15 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 115 1/3 IP, 45 BB, 115 K
One of the most hyped pitching prospects at this time a year ago, Snelling’s 2024 threatened to tank his prospect stock completely, but he seemed to find his groove (not to mention a couple ticks of velocity) after the Padres dealt him to the Marlins. He put together a 3.64 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 in eight starts for his new organization, the last one being a sharp debut at Triple-A. The Marlins should help his changeup along, as is their M.O.
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: High-A
Minor-league stats: 4-2, 1.54 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 41 IP, 12 BB, 60 K
Another Tommy John victim in 2024, Murphy isn’t as established of a pitching prospect as Tiedemann, but he was an early-season standout at High-A, also using a low release point to generate whiffs up in the zone. What his fastball lacks in velocity, it makes up for in shape, its 20 inches of induced vertical break falling into the elite range. Murphy is a bet on modern analytics and the Braves’ reputation for maximizing pitching outcomes, but he’ll require a longer wait.
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2024: Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 6-4, 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 77 IP, 35 BB, 110 K
Major-league stats: 0-3, 8.83 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 35 2/3 IP, 17 BB, 31 K
The No. 2 overall pick in 2021 showed just enough improvement in 2024 to earn one final nod heading into what figures to be a make-or-break season. The walks and home runs remain concerning (and basically doomed both of his stints in the majors), but Leiter’s fastball is such an analytical marvel that I’m holding out hope he makes that last adjustment that finally clicks everything into place.
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: High-A
Minor-league stats: 3-3, 2.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 99 2/3 IP, 48 BB, 135 K
Coming over from the Orioles in the Zach Eflin deal, Baumeister had a 1.24 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, and 13.7 K/9 in seven appearances with the Rays’ high-A affiliate, cutting his walk rate by a factor of three. It spanned only 29 innings, but given the Rays’ long history extracting the hidden talent from nondescript minor-leaguers, it’s reasonable to presume they’ve done the same here, having Baumeister lean on a fastball that carries through the top of the zone and a cutter that pairs nicely with it.
30. Moises Chace, Phillies
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 5-4, 3.59 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 80 1/3 IP, 40 BB, 124 K
Another nondescript minor-leaguer who found immediate success upon switching organizations, Chace put together a 3.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 15.2 K/9 in six starts after coming over from the Orioles in the Gregory Soto trade. His control is shaky, but his fastball has the ideal induced vertical break for today’s game. He earns Cristian Javier comparison from Baseball America, but Chace’s secondaries are further along than Javier’s were.
Well-known prospects who nonetheless fall short
Samuel Aldegheri, LAABraxton Ashcraft, PITJake Bloss, TORCade Cavalli, WASCam Caminiti, ATLMichael McGreevy, STLNoble Meyer, MIARiver Ryan, LADAJ Smith-Shawver, ATLEmiliano Teodo, TEXHurston Waldrep, ATLCarson Whisenhunt, SF
Lesser-known prospects who nonetheless appeal to me
Lucas Braun, ATLNoah Cameron, KCKohl Drake, TEXJaden Hamm, DETLogan Henderson, MILTy Johnson, TBParker Messick, CLEYordanny Monegro, BOSConnor Prielipp, MINIan Seymour, TBMatt Wilkinson, CLESteven Zobac, KC
