Manning has started two games entering his redshirt sophomore season at Texas
Seemingly every “way-too-early” 2026 NFL mock draft (including our own) has Texans quarterback Arch Manning penciled in as the No. 1 overall pick. Manning, after all, is the grandson of a former No. 2 overall pick and the nephew of two former No. 1 overall picks, (and Super Bowl MVPs, to boot). Adding to the hoopla is Manning’s success when he was on the field during his first two years with the Longhorns.
There’s every reason to believe Manning will live up to his potential, put together a great season for Texas and be a top-five (or even the very first player selected) in next year’s draft. That being said, more than one NFL college scouting director is not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet.
“I get that everyone’s excited,” one AFC college scouting director told Sports Illustrated. “That (touchdown) run (against UTSA) happened and people started talking — they’re almost surprised with that last name that he has that speed, and the ability to generate big plays with his legs, and he gets transformed into this elite prospect. The reality is we haven’t really seen him run the offense with any consistency yet. And that’s not his fault, he just hasn’t played.
“What are we looking at? You’d like to watch a quarterback in double-digit games to really evaluate them. … At other positions, you might get a feel after watching four games and have a good idea of who a guy is. The quarterback position is much different, it requires a much larger bank of film. You want to see him against a variety of different looks. In college, the talent is not as concentrated, so you want to see him against an Alabama or a Georgia.”
Specifically, NFL personnel are eager to see how Manning does this season against stiffer competition game-planning against him. During his first two seasons at Texas, Manning appeared in 12 games with two starts. Last year, Manning completed 67.8% of his 90 pass attempts with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. He also ran for four scores that included a 67-yard jaunt.
“You just don’t know until they’re really playing,” a different AFC college scouting director told SI. “Right now, the body of work is too small. We’ve seen big guys with talent, the tools, the arm, that don’t know how to process, and don’t have the accuracy to all levels of the field consistently enough. What we have on [Manning] isn’t nearly enough. You could guess, but that’s really all you’ll be doing — guessing.”
While he looks the part — one of the above scouting directors said that his pocket setup “looks like a Manning” — and has played well in limited snaps, Manning’s body of work to this point is too small for some NFL scouting directors to anoint him as next year’s surefire No. 1 pick just yet. Besides, Manning (who will be a redshirt sophomore) may even decide to return to school after the 2025 season.
Rest assured that every team currently in need of help at the quarterback position will be monitoring Manning’s 2025 season. One of those teams will surely be the New Orleans Saints, the team that drafted Manning’s grandfather, Archie, with the No. 2 overall pick way back in 1971.
